The XFL Is Finding Its Groove
An Op-Preview By Dylan Angelo
From innovative kickoff rules, to sideline interviews and a potential star in P.J. Walker, this XFL is legit. A far cry from its predecessor, the now-defunct Alliance of American Football, this league has a serious chance to succeed.
Last week, I went 4-0 picking teams and moved to 6-2 on the season. I’m starting to feel confident in what I’m seeing on the board. Now, let’s take a look at this week’s slate of contests.
Heading into Week 3, favorites and underdogs are both 4-4 against the spread (ATS). Home teams are 5-3 ATS. The betting total has gone under in six of the eight games played. The under has hit in each game involving DC, New York, Tampa Bay, Dallas and Seattle.
Game 1: Saturday 2:00PM EST (ABC)
Houston Roughnecks (2-0) @ Tampa Bay Vipers (0-2)
The Lines: Houston -6.5 O/U 47
The Pick: Houston -6.5 & Over 47
The Why: Here, we have two teams trending in opposite directions, to put it politely. The Houston Roughnecks enter Saturday afternoon’s contest with one of the most prolific offenses in the XFL, lead by QB P.J. Walker (Seven Touchdowns, One Interception, 442 Yards) and WR Cam Phillips (12 Receptions, 130 Yards, Four Touchdowns). Head coach June Jones has this well-oiled machine running rolling into Tampa on a two-game win streak with nine total offensive touchdowns, most in the league.
The Tampa Vipers, on the other hand, have dropped the first two games of the season, scoring only one touchdown, which came on a pick six by former FSU star Tarvarus McFadden against the Seattle Dragons last week. There has been a lot of shuffling at the quarterback position, between Aaron Murray (Georgia) who went 16-of-34 for 231 yards and two interceptions in Week 1, Taylor Cornelius (Oklahoma State) who went 16-of-27 for 154 yards and two interceptions in Week 2 and Quinton Flowers (USF) who has seen action in both contests, going 4-of-9 for 55 yards and one interception behind center this season.
On paper, this should be a beat down of brutal proportions as Tampa is riddled with question marks on both sides of the ball. Not too much to dive into here, lay the 6.5 and watch Houston orchestrate another beautiful performance. The over/unders have been tricky through the first two weeks, but I believe 47 is a good number in this spot. I’m liking the over.
Final score prediction: Houston 37-12.
Game 2: Saturday 5:00PM EST (FOX)
Dallas Renegades (1-1) @ Seattle Dragons (1-1)
The Lines: Dallas -5 O/U 44
The Pick: Seattle Dragons +5
The Why: Personally, this is my favorite game of the weekend. A Dallas team that, after the disappointing Week 1, seemed to get the back on track with last week’s victory over the LA Wildcats and a Seattle team that could have been 2-0, if its offense hadn’t collapsed against the DC Defenders in Week 1. I am, however, sure fans are pleased to have seen the team bounce back with a nice home win against the Vipers last week.
I’ve loved what I’ve seen from Seattle QB Brandon Silvers. The guy is a gamer, accurate, solid delivery time, and seems to fit with HC Jim Zorn’s vision of the offense.
The story of this game will be which defense can create more turnovers and win the field position battle. Both defenses have played well against the run, while being exposed by opposing passing games at times this season.
My belief here is that Seattle will take a couple away from Dallas QB Landry Jones and win this thing late. I know it’s not the same atmosphere as Seahawks’ games, but there is just something about playing football at CenturyLink Field that gets the blood pumping.
I’m not too confident about the over here with both defenses being fairly solid. Take the under or leave the line alone, is my recommendation.
Final score prediction: Seattle 20-18
Game 3: Sunday 3:00PM EST (ESPN)
New York Guardians (1-1) @ St.Louis Battlehawks (1-1)
The Lines: St.Louis -9.5 O/U 40.5
The Pick: St.Louis -9.5 Over 40.5
The Why: Much like our first game this weekend, this is another game featuring two teams heading in very different directions. New York’s Week 1 victory over the Vipers was overshadowed by a beatdown at the hands of the DC Defenders last week. St. Louis is also coming off of a loss, but against a formidable Houston squad in Week 2, the BattleHawks held their own. St. Louis enters with the third best QB in the XFL, Jordan Ta’amu, who has looked great in both games and almost led St. Louis to a shocking road win over the Roughnecks last weekend.
The body language, words and benching of former Oakland Raiders’ QB Matt McGloin at halftime last week, showed exactly where the Guardians currently are emotionally through two weeks of play. I don’t think he has the capability to tap into the potential of this team and wouldn’t be surprised, if after another slow start, head coach Kevin Gilbride decides to bench McGloin for good.
The Guardians managed to feast on the weak O-Line of Tampa in week one, but the mobility and escapability of Cardale Jones gave that group fits last week. Look for Ta’amu to have the same, if not more, success, as he has used his legs more consistently than Jones.
I like the look of St. Louis, as it appears to be a team on its move to the top of the XFL and this contest versus the Guardians, should be a mere stepping stone on that journey. BattleHawks all the way.
Final score prediction: St. Louis 29-12
Game 4: Sunday 6:00pm (FS1)
DC Defenders (2-0) @ Los Angeles Wildcats (0-2)
The Lines: DC -7.5 O/U 44
The Pick: DC -7.5
The Why: After back-to-back home games, DC packs up and heads across the country to play the LA Wildcats.
LA has had a bit of misfortune, getting clipped by the buzzsaw that is the Houston Roughnecks in Week 1, which coincidentally saw defensive coordinator Pepper Johnson fired. Last week, Wildcats’ QB Josh Johnson put together a solid ballgame, tossing a couple of scores and protecting the rock.
The defense, however, was unable to hold steady, collapsing in the fourth quarter, and allowing Dallas to take the W, 25-18.
I firmly believe that LA is not an 0-2 team, despite the record and I do believe this team can make something of this season.
But not here, not against this powerhouse. Yes, powerhouse. Pep Hamilton has this team buzzing, the offense humming and a defense that will steal the show on the turn of a dime. I have reservations laying the 7.5 points to a team I believe to be hungry and at home, but the way DC has handled business, I will need to see them fall to believe it.
Final score prediction DC 30-22
ATS records (Against The Spread):
- DC Defenders (2-0)
- Louis Battlehawks (2-0)
- Houston Roughnecks (1-1)
- Dallas Renegades (1-1)
- New York Guardians (1-1)
- LA Wildcats (1-1)
- Seattle Dragons (1-1)
- Tampa Bay Vipers (0-2)
All spreads, overs, and unders are courtesy of: https://www.oddsshark.com/xfl/week-3-odds
Week 4 of the XFL Brings More Intrigue to the League
An Op-Preview By Dylan Angelo
As excited I was to make my debut as a writer last week, I was more anxious to see if my bold assumptions of this league were to come true. They did.
Cam Phillips and PJ Walker provided plenty of spark as they continue to light up scoreboards across the league. The rebirth of football in St.Louis supported the largest XFL crowd with almost 30,000 lifelong BattleHawks fanatics losing their collective minds. I will continue to preach this, as long as the atmosphere and energy is here the game will evolve. Bring me end zone celebrations, bring me beer snakes bring me big hits.
Week 3 Bets: 4-3
Season Bets: 10-5
Game 1: Saturday 2:00pm (ABC)
Los Angeles Wildcats (1-2) @ New York Guardians (1-2)
The Lines: Los Angeles Wildcats -7 O/U 40
The Pick: Wildcats -7 & Over 40
The Why: To open week 4 of the XFL season we have a match-up between two teams with the same record but on very different paths. The New York Guardians fall continues. After starting the season off with a win at home, the Guardians have one touchdown in their last two games, courtesy of the 3rd string QB Luis Perez. The Guardians biggest question remains; who will step up at the QB position? Will they stick with NFL Dropout and interview of the XFL season Matt Mcgloin? Does former UNC play-maker Marquise Williams get the nod. Or does former AAF standout, Luis Perez get the job. Perez is the XFL player who admitted on live television last weekend that he learned to play QB partially from YouTube. If I had a shred of a brain I’d let Perez run the show, he has the most upside of the 3, and they have nothing to lose.
The Los Angeles Wildcats, coming off of their impressive 39-9 victory over perennial powerhouse Defenders, look to stay on track. I stated last week that I had reservations about giving the 7.5 points to LA as they have seemed like a team that was close to figuring it out. Well they certainly did. Former NFL Journeyman Josh Johnson showed everyone why he was once a starter in the NFL. Johnson finished his day going 18-25 for 278 yards and 3 scores. This doesn’t take away from the defensive effort by the Wildcats, who stole the show. The unit managed to intercept DC QB Cardale Jones a whopping 4 times in route to manage him being benched late in the 4th. Cornerback Mike Stevens finished the day with 2 interceptions and a sack. Aside from creating turnovers, this side was also a nightmare for the Defenders O-line. The Wildcats tallied 3 sacks, and 5 tackles for loss.
I have a feeling we are going to get a better game from the Guardians which will help us reach the total; I do not think it will be enough to tame the Cats. Lay the 7 and take the Over 40.
Final Score Prediction: LA Wildcats 27-17
Game 2: Saturday 5:00pm (FOX)
Seattle Dragons (1-2) @ St.Louis BattleHawks (2-1)
The Lines: Los Angeles Wildcats -7 O/U 40
The Pick: Wildcats -7 & Over 40
The Why: As someone who has been on the Seattle train the last 3 weeks there isn’t a team I’ve found more disappointing. Yes, Tampa Bay and New York are also seriously under performing but I haven’t supported those teams the way I have Seattle. I really believed Seattle’s defense had a shot to win both last week’s game and week 2’s contest, but the offense just hasn’t held its weight. Seattle went into halftime last week up 12-6 on Dallas before being outscored 18-0 in the second half. Dragons QB Brandon Silvers has shown flashes but the 53% completion percentage and the 170 yard per game average isn’t what Jim Zorn is looking for. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a healthy dose of backup QB B.J Daniels this week as his mobility and play making skills could energize a group that desperately needs it. St. Louis was welcomed home by the arms of almost 30,000 people ecstatic to have pro football back in Missouri. The BattleHawks did not disappoint, handing the Guardians A-grade butt-whooping. We saw the first kick return for a touchdown in XFL history as well as Joe Powell took a reverse on the kickoff 84 yards to the house. On offense, St. Louis once again stuck to their game plan of pounding the ball on the ground early and often. St.Louis has used a three headed attack on the ground with QB Jordan Ta’amu, and running backs Christine Michael, and Matt Jones. Matt Jones leads the XFL in rushing yards (224 yards through 3 games). QB Jordan Ta’amu continues his stellar play both on the ground and in the air by protecting the football, and making the reads necessary to put this team in scoring position on almost every drive. Look for St.Louis to continue to solidify its case as one of the top teams in this league, as the BattleHawks will be too much for this Seattle team.
Final Score Prediction: St.Louis 31-15
Game 3: Sunday 4:00pm (FS1)
Houston Roughnecks (3-0) @ Dallas Renegades (2-1)
The Lines: Houston -1 O/U 50.5
The Pick: Houston -1 Over 50.5
The Why: Dallas went into halftime last week losing, in a game where they seemed to not have anything going. QB Landry Jones has continued to throw the ball carelessly as he has just as many touchdowns on the season as interceptions (4) through his two games. However, the Renegades seemed to hit their stride in the second half as they outscored Seattle 18-0 to finish the game on top 24-12. The second half showed that when Dallas can run the ball on early downs effectively, their offense can move the ball with the RPO (Run,Pass,Option). Landry Jones connected on a beautifully designed RPO a 10 yard score to Stetson graduate TE Donald Parham. Jones and Parham would connect again later on 3rd and 9 for a 65 yard score late in the 4th that seemed to have put the dagger in the Dragons. After starting the season as a heavy favorite to win the league and opening 0-1, Dallas has reeled off two big road wins to get back into the mix of the top half of the league. Just in time for a good old-fashioned Texas throw down with in-state rival and explosive Houston.
Houston comes in as the lone undefeated team left in the XFL, managing to outlast a pesky Vipers squad in a barn burner 34-27. Not until an interception by DB DeMarquis Gates late in the fourth quarter that the Roughnecks could relax, Houston once again on offense found success early and often from the right arm of XFL standout P.J. Walker (he’s going to be on an NFL roster as soon as the season ends). As the Roughnecks QB put on yet another show tossing 3 scores and racking up 306 yards. Walker also had to pull his best Houdini impersonation as a fumbled snap on 3rd and goal from the 8 yard line had him running for his life only to turn the corner and find the end zone on a remarkable play. Walker continues to lead the league in passing yards (748) and passing touchdowns (10). It definitely helps when his favorite target Cam Phillips is also the best receiver in the XFL (he’s going to be on an NFL roster when this season ends as well). Cam leads the XFL in receiving yards (324) and touchdowns (7). It seems as though any time Walker loads up for the endzone Phillips is on the other end of it, expecting it to be in his hands. Strap in, this will be the game of the weekend. With both offenses looking to have it figured out the game will undoubtedly come down to who’s defense can make the plays necessary to hang on. I think that team will yet again be the Houston Roughnecks but it will be just as close as the experts think.
Final Score Prediction: Houston 31-29
Game 4: Sunday 7:00pm (ESPN2)
DC Defenders (2-1) @ Tampa Bay Vipers (0-3)
The Lines: DC -2.5 O/U 43.5
The Pick: DC -2.5
The Why: Sometimes getting punched in the mouth is just what the doctor ordered. I believe that is the case for DC. Winning can allow us to become complacent, I trust that the embarrassing 30 point loss last week puts a bad taste in the mouth of everyone involved. These are the weeks you can see guys hit harder, move faster, and feel that sense of urgency to work for that winning feeling again. If you were lucky enough to get the opening line on this game of DC +1.5; I believe this to be a complete overreaction as the line has now progressed to DC -2.5. I expect Tampa Bay to play well but that may not be enough against a team coming in with a chip on their shoulder. Last week was without a doubt the worst game of Cardale Jones’s career. Jones finished 13-26 for 103 yards and 4 interceptions. A ton of credit goes to the LA Wildcats for having a game plan that was executed perfectly, but Cardale looked flat out lost. He was missing basic throws all over the place, most times when you see a guy miss high it can be accredited to nerves or trying to “overthrow”. Well Jones missed high, low, left, right, back, forward, it simply did not matter. This week is a far more favorable match-up for the Defenders gunslinger. Since week 1 Tampa Bay has been burned by the deep ball. I expect the speedy trio of DC WR’s; Rashad “Rocket” Ross, Eli Rogers, and Deandre Thompkins to exploit this and find success early and often.
The Vipers once again had another game where they moved the ball up and down the field but could not come through when it was most important. After scoring 3 points week 1, 9 points in week 2, the Vipers managed to tally 27 points in week 3’s loss to the Roughnecks. However, a late 4th quarter interception from QB Taylor Cornelius would end a late surge. The biggest concern I have for this squad is the departure of QB Quinton Flowers from the team this week. This is following a week in which I believed Flowers played his best game. Against Houston, Flowers managed to deliver a scoring drive by going 4 for 6 for 51 yards and pulling the ball down to scamper for 29 yards and a touchdown. You could feel the burst of energy that Flowers brought to this unit that was not as easily visible with Aaron Murray and Taylor Cornelius. It appears head coach Marc Trestman will have no choice but to stick with Cornelius and hope he can recreate some of the successes he found last week. Expect Tampa to put up some points and rack up yards but in the end the turnover pendulum will swing in favor of DC as I believe they will take at least 2 away from the Vipers offense. The over is enticing at 43.5 however, I am choosing to stay away. Lay the 2.5 and hope the Defenders show up.
Final Score Prediction: DC 23-16
*Heading into Week 4, favorites have the slight advantage ATS with a 7-5 record. Home teams are also 7-5 ATS. The betting total has gone under in eight of the twelve games. The under has hit in each game involving New York, Dallas, and Seattle.*
ATS records (Against The Spread)
- ST. Louis Battlehawks (3-0)
- DC Defenders (2-1)
- Houston Roughnecks (2-1)
- Dallas Renegades (2-1)
- LA Wildcats (2-1)
- New York Guardians (1-2)
- Seattle Dragons (1-2)
- Tampa Bay Vipers (0-3)
All odds courtesy of:
