An In-Depth Look At Mel Kiper’s First Mock Draft
Last week, ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. released his first mock draft for the 2018 NFL Draft (Round 1). Below, our own Jack Jennings takes a deeper look at Kiper’s picks, and provides his own insight.
Disclaimer: This is not Based In Fact’s official mock draft, which will be released in the coming weeks.
1. Cleveland Browns
Kiper’s Pick: Wyoming QB Josh Allen
The Browns need a quarterback, and Allen’s talent far surpasses his pedestrian collegiate stat line, but the Browns may want to pick a quarterback with more experience than Allen, who was a starter for just two seasons on an FCS team. Allen has a ton of potential, but head coach Hue Jackson needs to win now.
Alternate Pick: Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield
The reigning Heisman trophy winner is reminiscent of Johnny Manziel, who was a disaster in Cleveland. But Mayfield, who has a stronger foundation than Johnny Football did, would bring plenty of experience, top-tier accuracy, and a winning attitude to a desperate team and fanbase.
2. New York Giants
Kiper’s Pick: UCLA QB Josh Rosen
A nightmare season could turn into a dream scenario for the Giants. Rosen is a fierce competitor with excellent pocket presence and solid accuracy. In the third round of the 2017 NFL Draft, the Giants took Cal quarterback Davis Webb, who might be the long-term answer, but Rosen’s talent may be too much to pass up. Rosen’s injury history makes his durability a question mark, but he will almost certainly be a top-10 pick.
Alternate Pick: Penn State RB Saquon Barkley
If the Giants see Webb as Eli Manning’s future successor, this would be a great opportunity for New York to bolster its rushing attack. Barkley is the top-rated player in the draft for a reason, as he could be a Swiss Army Knife out of the backfield as a runner, receiver, and blocker.
3. Indianapolis Colts
Kiper’s Pick: NC State DE Bradley Chubb
Chubb is a gifted pass-rusher and run-stopper. He would be an excellent addition to a Colts defense that struggled to get to the quarterback last season, ranking 31st in the NFL with just 25 sacks in 2017.
Alternate Pick: Notre Dame OT Mike McGlinchey
The Colts gave up a league-high 56 sacks last season. Andrew Luck is projected to return next season, and the Indianapolis offensive line is going to be tasked with keeping their franchise quarterback upright and healthy; taking the top offensive tackle in the draft with the third overall pick, might be the way to go. If Barkley slips to three, he might also be in play for the Colts, as owner Jim Irsay recently compared the Penn State star to former Colts great Edgerrin James.
4. Cleveland Browns (from Houston Texans)
Kiper’s Pick: Penn State RB Saquon Barkley
As previously stated, Barkley is a multi-tooled halfback who projects as the best player in this year’s draft. Hue Jackson hasn’t shown a lot of faith in Isaiah Crowell, but both he and Duke Johnson Jr. have been productive. With an upgrade at the quarterback position, the duo could thrive.
Alternate Pick: Alabama DB Minkah Fitzpatrick
In a division with Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and A.J. Green, the Browns need a true shutdown corner. Fitzpatrick lined up mostly at safety for the Crimson Tide, but was an absolute blanket in man-to-man coverage.
5. Denver Broncos
Kiper’s Pick: USC QB Sam Darnold
Darnold could be the most hyped quarterback since Andrew Luck, but there’s a reason Kiper has him as the third signal caller coming off the board. Darnold’s accuracy and decision-making took a dive, while his turnovers rose in his second season as a starter for the Trojans. His struggles have likely caused him to fall out of favor with some quarterback-needy teams, but the 20-year-old passer has all of the tools to become a solid NFL starter.
Alternate Pick: Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield
The problem with taking a young quarterback like Darnold is that he will go through some growing pains, and Vance Joseph’s job will probably not survive another bad season. That being said, an older rookie quarterback, who has been a winner, may be just the thing the Broncos are looking for. Baker Mayfield to Mile High makes a lot of sense. He has the tools and promise that the 2015 Super Bowl champions are looking for.
6. New York Jets
Kiper’s Pick: Alabama DB Minkah Fitzpatrick
Fitzpatrick is the top safety/corner in the draft, but will likely be play the corner position at the next level. The Jets’ secondary already features the talented safety tandem of Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye. Adding Fitzpatrick to the mix could certainly make the Jets defense fun to watch in 2018 and beyond.
Alternate Pick: USC QB Sam Darnold
How many years has it been since the Jets had a real franchise quarterback? Could this be the draft they finally find one? The oft-injured Josh McCown had a very good season for New York in 2017, but it’s hard to imagine the 38-year-old journeyman sticking around for the long-term. He could, however, serve as a stopgap player-coach for someone like Sam Darnold, who needs all the help he can get.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Kiper’s Pick: Notre Dame OG Quenton Nelson
The Buccaneers need an offensive line to give both Jameis Winston and the halfbacks time to work. Nelson, the top guard in the draft could give Tampa Bay exactly what it needs in both regards.
Alternate Pick: None
This is a good pick for Tampa Bay. The team has the playmakers, but nothing has come together. With a solid offensive line, the Bucs could finally become contenders in an ultra competitive NFC South.
8. Chicago Bears
Kiper’s Pick: Alabama WR Calvin Ridley
Mitchell Trubisky needs a receiver he can rely on. Ridley is the top pass catcher in the draft, and new head coach Matt Nagy will be looking for talented receivers to pair with his young and talented signal caller.
Alternate Pick: None
Kevin White has just 19 career receptions for 187 yards since being drafted 7th overall by the Bears in 2015. White has only played four games in three seasons, and has ended every season on injured reserve. Despite an immense amount of talent, he has proven to be unreliable. The hope is that he could still develop, but the reality is that the Bears should start looking elsewhere for receiver help.
9. San Francisco 49ers
Kiper’s Pick: Ohio State CB Denzel Ward
Ward is a athletic specimen at the corner position; however, at only 5’10” he lacks the size of a true No. 1 corner and would probably serve better in the slot. With only one interception in his three-year college career, there’s a big question mark on his ability to create turnovers, but he should transition well to the NFL.
Alternate Pick: SMU WR Courtland Sutton
The 49ers have their QB of the future in undefeated Jimmy Garoppolo, so now it’s time to focus on his receiving corps. Sutton isn’t the best route-runner, but has good hands; and at 6’4”, he’s sure to be a solid target for Jimmy G.
10. Oakland Raiders
Kiper’s Pick: Georgia ILB Roquan Smith
Smith is a dynamic linebacker with exceptional range. He’s a solid tackler, and has a tendency to make plays behind the line of scrimmage. Smith is a player who could learn a lot behind someone like NaVorro Bowman, and someone the team could pair with Khalil Mack for years to come.
Alternate Pick: Iowa CB Josh Jackson
If the Raiders are able to retain Bowman, Mack, Bruce Irvin and Aldon Smith, then Roquan Smith could be a superfluous addition to a mega-talented defensive front. The Raiders’ secondary really struggled last season. Josh Jackson had more interceptions with Iowa in 2017 (8), than Oakland had as a team (5). The Raiders desperately need to force more turnovers, and Jackson is the best ball hawk in the draft.
11. Miami Dolphins
Kiper’s Pick: Notre Dame OT Mike McGlinchey
Adam Gase has some tough decisions to make. McGlinchey is the top rated tackle in the draft, and would allow either Laremy Tunsil or Ja’Wuan James to slide inside and fortify the guard position. If Gase is going to roll with Ryan Tannehill, then it might be best to address an o-line that allowed the fourth lowest rushing yards per game, and a league-low four rushing touchdowns.
Alternate Pick: Virginia Tech LB Tremaine Edmunds
Kiko Alonso is an obvious liability in coverage. Edmunds has good speed for his 6’5” frame, and would allow Alonso to move outside and work as a rusher/run-stopper coming off the edge, a position where he could thrive. The Dolphins are not an exciting franchise, so it’s doubtful that they’d pull the trigger on an exciting player, but if Mayfield is still on the board, things may get interesting. This week, he expressed a desire to reunite with former Sooners teammate Kenny Stills.
12. Cincinnati Bengals
Kiper’s Pick: Virginia Tech LB Tremaine Edmunds
Edmunds size, speed, versatility and potential would be intriguing in Teryl Austin’s defensive scheme. Austin has had a history of productive linebackers, including former Detroit Lion DeAndre Levy. Pairing the hulking Edmunds with Vontaze Burfict would be beneficial to a Cincinnati defensive front that is looking to get back to the playoffs in 2018.
Alternate Pick: Texas OT Connor Williams
The Bengals offensive line failed Andy Dalton this season, allowing the 13th most sacks this season (40). The running game also suffered behind the line, ranking 31st in yards per game (85.6). Williams is a standout offensive lineman, who was hampered by injuries last season. If he can stay healthy, he would be a big addition to a struggling o-line.
13. Washington
Kiper’s Pick: Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield
This would be an interesting pick for Washington, which seems content with letting Kirk Cousins walk this off-season. The team is loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, so it would be a smart choice to pick up the most experienced of the draftable quarterbacks. Mayfield would give Washington a quality starter in the event Cousins is gone, but it would be even more beneficial if Washington could keep Cousins and give Mayfield an opportunity to develop as an NFL passer.
Alternate Pick: None
Washington does not have many questions, which means it should be a contender, barring injuries. If he’s not gone already, Mayfield should be the pick here, if just to shore up a delicate position. Should he slip further, the Arizona Cardinals would be his next logical landing spot.
14. Green Bay Packers
Kiper’s Pick: UT San Antonio DE Marcus Davenport
A 6’7” pass-rusher off the edge could be exactly what the Packers are looking for. Davenport, a rare combination of size and skill, had 8.5 sacks last season with UT San Antonio. He would really bolster a position of need for Green Bay.
Alternate Pick: None
The Packers need more production from their defensive front, and Davenport should have an immediate impact.
15. Arizona Cardinals
Kiper’s Pick: Iowa CB Josh Jackson
With 34-year-old Tramon Williams an unrestricted free agent, the Cardinals could look at drafting a corner here. Pairing an athletic Jackson with Patrick Peterson makes a lot of sense for an Arizona defense known for its secondary.
Alternate Pick: Louisville QB Lamar Jackson
The Cardinals have exactly zero quarterbacks under contract for 2018. Lamar Jackson is probably the most talented athlete in the entire draft. An offensive trio of Jackson, David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald would be very fun to watch (as long as Fitz doesn’t retire this offseason). A lot of analysts are saying that Jackson, who did not play receiver at the collegiate or high school level, should transition to a pass catcher in the NFL, but the former Heisman trophy winner has too much arm talent to waste on a position change. Besides, after three seasons at Louisville, it would be hard not to see Jackson behind center in Cardinal red.
16. Baltimore Ravens
Kiper’s Pick: Pittsburgh OT Brian O’Neill
O’Neill is an immediate impact player. He’s a big, athletic offensive lineman who can play anywhere along the line, and his background as a former tight end could even open up some potential trick plays for the Ravens.
Alternate Pick: Boston College OLB Harold Landry
Terrell Suggs could be moving on this off-season. He turns 36 in October, and is nearing the end of his playing career. Even if the Ravens retain the star veteran, it’s time for the team to look for his future replacement, and Landry, who is a force off the edge, could be the one to fill Suggs’ role. It would be a great plus if Landry had the opportunity to learn from one of the best to touch the field, if even for a season.
17. Los Angeles Chargers
Kiper’s Pick: Alabama DT Da’Ron Payne
The Chargers have some very talented defensive linemen in Corey Luiget, Melvin Ingram, Brandon Mebane and Joey Bosa; however, Mebane is expected to be gone after next season, and the Chargers could use another space-eater in the middle of their line. Payne is among the top defensive tackles in the draft, and it would serve the rookie well to learn from a former Super Bowl champion like Mebane.
Alternate Pick: Washington DT Vita Vea
Vea is simply another option at defensive tackle for the Chargers, but Payne may be the better choice for what the Chargers want. Either way, the Chargers, a team with very few holes, should take a defensive tackle here.
18. Seattle Seahawks
Kiper’s Pick: FSU S Derwin James
The Seahawks’ “Legion of Boom” was decimated last season, and star strong safety Kam Chancellor may never play another down after suffering a neck injury. Even if Chancellor is able to return, it’s likely the LOB looks a lot different next season. James was a solid player for the Noles in 2017, and has all the tools to be a star in the NFL. The Seahawks, with Ken Norton Jr. as the defensive coordinator, are the team to get him where he needs to go.
Alternate Pick: Ohio State C/G Billy Price
The Seahawks have found offensive success over the past few years, despite fielding an awful offensive line. Price’s versatility would be useful, and he could serve as a consistent and durable piece the Seahawks could build an o-line around.
19. Dallas Cowboys
Kiper’s Pick: Washington DT Vita Vea
Vea, listed at 6’5” and 340 pounds, is an athletic freak. He can burst through offensive lines, make open field tackles, and was even effective on special teams in college. This would be a great pick up for the Cowboys, as they try to make it back to the playoffs in 2018.
Alternate Pick: SMU WR Courtland Sutton
Dez Bryant has failed to reach 1,000 yards, or 10 touchdowns, for the third-straight season. Brice Butler is set to leave the team this off-season. Sutton could replace some of Butler’s production, and eventually supplant an overpriced Bryant.
20. Detroit Lions
Kiper’s Pick: Ohio St. DE Sam Hubbard
Hubbard lacks consistency, but can be very dominant at times. He’s not a flashy pick, but pairing him with Ezekiel Ansah could give the Lions a pair of dangerous bookends.
Alternate Pick: LSU DE Arden Key
Key had a down season in 2017, but is very athletically gifted, and has a very high ceiling. His stats aren’t excellent, but he has a lot of potential. It would be fun to see that potential maximized in Matt Patricia’s defensive scheme.
21. Buffalo Bills
Kiper’s Pick: UCF CB Mike Hughes
In his one season with UCF, Hughes made a huge impact on both special teams and defense, helping the Knights secure a perfect season and National Championship victory over Auburn. Hughes could give the Bills a much needed boost in both areas, but with only two seasons of experience, the first round may be a little high for the young prospect.
Alternate Pick: Auburn CB Carlton Davis
Davis has the size and athleticism to be a top corner in the NFL. He’s a solid tackler in space and has a nose for the ball, which led to plenty of pass breakups during his college career.
22. Buffalo Bills (from Kansas City Chiefs)
Kiper’s Pick: Michigan DT Maurice Hurst
With Kyle Williams in the twilight of his career, it’s time for the Bills to add some young talent at the defensive tackle position. Hurst comes into the draft with four years of college experience, and an aggressive nature as a pass-rusher up the middle.
Alternate Pick: None
Hurst is the last of the top-tier defensive tackles in the draft. He fits the Bills’ defensive scheme, and his youth would be a welcomed addition to an already stout defensive front.
23. Los Angeles Rams
Kiper’s Pick: Auburn CB Carlton Davis
The Rams’ corners were not great last season, and with the prospect of losing both Nickell Robey-Coleman and Trumaine Johnson this off-season, the team will likely look to the draft to address its secondary. Adding Davis would go a long way towards shoring up an area of need, on a playoff team with very few holes.
Alternate Pick: None
If Los Angeles doesn’t add some corners in free agency, this will become a pressing need. If he’s still there, Davis would be the top corner on the board. Hughes may also be an option here, as his athleticism could add another fold to an already dangerous team.
24. Carolina Panthers
Kiper’s Pick: Ohio State C/G Billy Price
Price would be a dependable pick at this spot, and Carolina could use another body on the line to keep Cam Newton upright in 2018, even if it manages to bring back Andrew Norwell.
Alternate Pick: LSU CB Donte Jackson
Jackson is expected to be the fastest player in the draft, and the Panthers have needed secondary help since cutting ties with Josh Norman two years ago. Jackson could double as a return man, or gunner on special teams, which would be a big plus for the Panthers.
25. Tennessee Titans
Kiper’s Pick: Boston College OLB Harold Landry
Both Brian Orakpo and Derrick Morgan are set to hit the free-agent market in 2019, so the Titans should start looking for linebacker help in the draft. Landry could begin his career as a situational pass-rusher, then transition into a starting role for this young and talented defense.
Alternate Pick: LSU RB Derrius Guice
The Titans cut ties with head coach Mike Mularkey, and it’s time the team also cut ties with its “exotic smashmouth” scheme. Marcus Mariota played a much quicker game at the collegiate level than he’s played in the NFL thus far. Surrounding Mariota with athletes would probably be beneficial to his development as a passer in the NFL. Guice is a faster back than both DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. He is hard-nosed runner with exceptional quickness and has shown potential as a receiver out of the backfield. Mariota should thrive with the former LSU star, and a pairing with Henry could give the Titans’ backfield a White-Johnson 2.0 kind of feel.
26. Atlanta Falcons
Kiper’s Pick: Texas A&M WR Christian Kirk
Kirk is a small and scrappy pass catcher with reliable hands and accurate route-running. He could be a poor matchup for teams as an elite slot receiver, and kick returner.
Alternate Pick: LSU CB Donte Jackson
Sure, giving Matt Ryan another weapon is intriguing here, but pairing Desmond Trufant and Jackson could be too good to pass up. Thomas Dimitroff has proven himself to be a good judge of talent, so he should be able to find the right piece.
27. New Orleans Saints
Kiper’s Pick: SMU WR Courtland Sutton
Brandon Coleman and Willie Snead are restricted free agents. Drafting 6’4” Sutton would make 6’6” Coleman expendable. Drew Brees will likely return to New Orleans for another season, so the Saints should give him as many weapons as they can.
Alternate Pick: LSU DE Arden Key
A local talent, Key would be a great player to pair with Sheldon Rankins and Cameron Jordan, and another potentially dominant piece along an already strong defensive front.
28. Pittsburgh Steelers
Kiper’s Pick: Alabama ILB Rashaan Evans
Ryan Shazier may never touch the field again. As sad as it is for both he and the Steelers, the team must start looking for his replacement. Evans is an aggressive tackler with good range and a high motor. He shoots the gap well on run plays and is an effective blitzer from the middle of the defense.
Alternate Pick: None
Supplanting the dynamic, game-changing speed that Shazier brought to the position is going to be near impossible. Even with hope that he may be able to return someday, the Steelers need to try and replace an irreplaceable player.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars
Kiper’s Pick: Oklahoma TE Mark Andrews
Marcedes Lewis will be 34 next season and his production as a receiver has never reached the level it did in 2010. He had five touchdowns this season, and holds value as a blocker, but it’s time for the Jags to start looking forward. Blake Bortles needs a security blanket, and Andrews is the best receiving tight end in the draft. This could be a match made in Duval.
Alternate Pick: Oklahoma St. WR James Washington
Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson are free agents. In the event that the Jaguars lose one or both this offseason, Washington, who led the NCAA in receiving in 2017 (1,549 yards), would be worth this pick.
Final three picks adjusted after Championship Weekend.
30. Minnesota Vikings
Kiper’s Pick: Texas OT Connor Williams
The Vikings have a surplus of talent on both sides of the ball, so a good move here would be to add another piece to the offensive line. If not for an injury-plagued 2017 (torn knee ligaments), Williams would probably have been one of the first players to come off the board. He’s dominant in pass protection, has good size, nice footwork and a lot of potential. The Vikings would be able to give the 20-year-old some time to develop, before working him into a starting role.
Alternate Pick: Alabama S Ronnie Harrison
Andrew Sendejo and Harrison Smith are one of the better safety tandems in the league, but adding Harrison could make the Vikings’ secondary even stronger. Harrison is a solid-tackling thumper with a nose for the ball and plenty of big play ability. Two Harrisons could be better than one.
31. Philadelphia Eagles
Kiper’s Pick: UCLA OT Kolton Miller
The primary goal of the Eagles in 2018 should be to protect Carson Wentz, who was having an MVP caliber season before suffering a torn ACL. Oft-injured left tackle Jason Peters just celebrated his 36th birthday, and is close to the end of his illustrious career. Miller’s 6’8” frame makes him an tantalizing prospect, and he could be the next great blind side tackle for the Eagles.
Alternate Pick: Boise St. ILB Leighton Vander Esch
Dannell Ellerbe, 32, became the Eagles current starting middle linebacker after Jordan Hicks, 25, ruptured his achilles earlier in the season. Philadelphia has a definite need for depth, and Esch had extraordinarily productive season in 2017, logging 141 total tackles – making his presence felt as both a run-stopper and coverage linebacker. This may be a little high for Esch, but it could be a great gamble for the Eagles.
32. New England Patriots
Kiper’s Pick: USC DE Rasheem Green
Green was a dominant force off the edge last season, and the Patriots would like to add some strength opposite Trey Flowers. Current starter Eric Lee is already on his third team in two years and may not be the long-term solution they want. Green can get after the quarterback and take some of the pressure off Flowers.
Alternate Pick: Oklahoma OT Orlando Brown Jr.
Brown was a three-year starter at Oklahoma and a unanimous All-American at left tackle in 2017. At 6’8” 345 pounds, he has the size, skill and experience to dominate in the NFL. The Patriots could lose current starter Nate Solder this offseason, and can’t afford to suffer a lapse in protection for Tom Brady, who will turn 41 next season.
