The Setup

Miami Marlins’ centerfielder Lewis Brinson enters the 2019 season with a big question mark.

When the Marlins traded Christian Yelich to the Milwaukee Brewers for Brinson, a 24-year-old with great tools and high potential, the South Florida native was billed as a “Hometown Hero” of sorts, but Brinson’s first season in Miami fell far short of expectations.

Big Trouble In Little Havana

In limited opportunities due to injury and poor production, Brinson hit .186/.232/.338, 10 of his 11 homeruns and 30 of his 42 RBI’s in the first half of the 2018 season, in 290 at-bats over 84 games.

Despite the poor HR and RBI production in the second half of the season, Brinson managed to improve as an overall hitter with a .239/.263/.337 slash line over 25 games and with 95 at-bats.

When the Marlins lost, his numbers were .151/.198/.272 (over 60 games started), but when the team won, Brinson hit .273/.304/.440 (over 40 games started).

The biggest defining factor for the former 29th overall pick, however, was when he was ahead in the count, as he managed an impressive .275 BA and .327 OBP with nine HRs and 29 RBIs.

Brinson finished 2018 with a .199/.240/.338 split, which fell just short of the “Mendoza line” – an expression based on former MLB shortstop Mario Mendoza (a career .215 hitter), defining a .200 BA competency threshold.

As a result of his falling below the threshold, Brinson’s rookie campaign compounded the pressure on what looks to be a pivotal 2019 season, as the Marlins have had a competitive outfield heading into Spring Training and are developing a strong farm system.

If Brinson wants to be the guy to lead Miami into the future, then he needs to make his presence felt this season.

Breakout Season?

Based on his off-season press conferences and social media, Brinson seems fully aware of the stakes.

He’s been hitting the gym and working on his on-the-field training, hitting, strength and agility.

“During the off-season, when no one is at Marlins Park, we find him in the [batting] cages at 7 or 8 in the morning,” a Marlins representative told Based in Fact. “He’s consistently here working all day.”

.@LewisBrinson’s putting on a show. 😳#SpringTraining pic.twitter.com/wZgquKR8Pl

— MLB (@MLB) February 27, 2019

So far, the hard work has seemed to be paying off, as Brinson has been en fuego during the pre-season, hitting .444/.500/1.556 with three HRs and three RBIs in nine at bats over four games.

Only time will tell if Brinson can exceed Baseball Reference’s projection of a .213/.272/.363 split with 12 HRs and 43 RBIs in 300+ at bats.